Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 15.06% in February, but War-Driven Fuel Costs Threaten Progress

Nigeria recorded its eleventh consecutive monthly decline in annual inflation in February 2026, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting that the headline rate eased to 15.06 per cent from 15.10 per cent in January — the lowest level since November 2020. Economists and the Central Bank of Nigeria had been cautiously optimistic, noting that a stronger naira was reducing import costs and that food prices, the largest component of the consumer price index, had been on a downward trend. However, that fragile progress is now under serious threat. The outbreak of the US-Iran war in early March has pushed global crude oil prices sharply higher, driving up Nigeria’s petrol prices and triggering increases in transport fares, food distribution costs and manufacturing overheads. Bloomberg analysts and local economists agree that the country could see a meaningful reversal of the disinflation trend in the March figures. Food inflation, which rose to 12.12 per cent in February from 8.89 per cent the month before, is considered particularly vulnerable to fuel-driven supply chain disruptions. Nigeria’s 2026 budget was designed around a conservative oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, meaning that with Brent now trading above $110, the government faces a paradoxical situation: higher oil revenues on paper, but a cost-of-living crisis on the streets as citizens bear the direct burden of rising energy prices.